Downstream consequences of a dam break are directly related to the volume released during the incident. In the case of tailings dams, defining this volume is uncertain due to the physical properties of the tailings and the geometry of the failure.
This work validates the probabilistic method of Giurich & Ezama (2022) to estimate the volume released in a tailings dam break, applied to three globally known cases, using the CDA (2021) depressed cone method and considering the variability of the parameters involved.
Finally, it is compared with deterministic methodologies commonly used in the industry.
