Virtual Session: Exploration Insights
Presenter:
- Ehsanollah Baninajar, Data Scientist (SRK Exploration, United Kingdom)
- Contributing authors: Niall Tomlinson
Project Murchison is a research collaboration between SRK Exploration and the University of Exeter College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences to develop a unified probabilistic prospectivity model based on Mineral Systems data. Traditional approaches of mineral prospectivity mapping calculate only “relative” prospectivity of targets and often fail to fully appreciate all the available information (e.g., geologists' opinion, exploration intensity maps, etc). Project Murchison has developed a unified probabilistic model to deal with these traditional shortcomings and calculates Absolute Prospectivity: the probability of occurrence for deposits of different magnitude. Additionally, by combining with a model of how exploration proceeds & uncertainty evolves, the unified exploration model can assess the probabilities of eventual outcomes and quantify their uncertainty.
The model utilises a Bayesian framework, with a prior developed from mineral system data and other expert knowledge, updated by data from known mineral deposits and exploration work. First, a novel approach is used to extract covariates for critical components of the Gold Mineral System, and used to quantitatively map mineral system processes. Using a knowledge-based approach the quantified mineral system is used to map the prior probability of deposits of different sizes occurring. An exploration model is constructed based on known mineral deposit data, combined with exploration data that is used to quantify the level of ‘exploredness’, this combined model is the used to update the prior expectation. Additionally, a time series approach is implemented to estimate the quantity and magnitude of deposits to be discovered within the exploration time frame using endowment modelling. The final posterior probabilities represent real probabilities of discovery for deposits of different magnitude.
The Unified Exploration Model will not only provide more reasoned and accurate project valuations, but also quantify and profile exploration uncertainty, thereby offering a powerful tool for ground selection, explore/defer/drop/deal decisions and capital allocation. The optimisation of capital allocation will improve exploration efficiency and the tonnes discovered for dollar spent ratio.
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