This presentation exposes an investigation of the potential impact of climate change on Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and the challenges associated with estimating PMP in a changing climate. PMP is the theoretical maximum precipitation possible for a given duration, watershed, or storm area. In the current climate scenario, PMP, like many other hydroclimatic variables, is expected to change over time. Recent studies have investigated the potential impact of climate change on PMP and found an overall increasing trend in various parts of the world.
PMP estimation can have a wide range of values depending on the approach applied and the amount of information available. This variable is a key factor for the operation and stability of dams and tailings facilities during the operation, closure, and post-closure stages, so one of the current challenges is to be able to estimate this parameter under a changing environment without underestimating or overestimating it given the available information. The uncertainty associated with PMP has an impact on critical infrastructure design and cost, as well as stakeholder decisions.
